India’s GDP is estimated to contract by 7.7 percent during the current fiscal, said the Economic Survey 2020-21 on Friday.
The document which was tabled by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman in the Lok Sabha in its debt simulations for worst-case debt analysis assumed the contraction at (-) 7.7 percent.
According to the survey, the real growth rate for FY22 was assumed at 11.5 percent based on IMF estimates.
The document prepared by the Finance Ministry’s Chief Economic Adviser Krishnamurthy V. Subramanian said general government debt for FY20 is taken as 73.8 percent of the GDP.
“The primary deficit for FY21 is assumed to be 6.8 percent of GDP… The primary deficit for FY22 is assumed to be 2.5 percent of GDP.
“The declining trajectory of the primary deficit is assumed to reach 1.5 percent of GDP by FY24, and it is assumed to stay at 1.5 percent thereafter,” it added.
Besides, the survey cited that the nominal interest rate is assumed to be 6 percent.
“As of January 26, 2021, we estimate the weighted average cost of borrowing using the weights of general government borrowing across maturities to be 6 percent.
“Inflation is taken as 5 percent, i.e. mid-point of the range of 4 percent – 6 percent.”
