A steady increase in daily new cases and increasing geographical spread remain material risks to the country’s nascent economic recovery, according to Kotak Institutional Equities.
As per KIE’s Covid-19 Tracker, the road to recovery remains rocky with a rise in new COVID cases. The electricity consumption gap remains large for states with a high number of active cases. E-waybills and railway freight data were weaker in July in comparison to June. On the other hand, petrol and diesel consumption increased in June and was marginally above the March consumption level, it said.
However, the number of new cases continues to rise. Daily new Covid-19 cases continue to rise unabated. The change in the number of active cases, which had started trending downwards in the first half of June, has also been rising since the second half of June.
“We also show that the geographical spread of Covid-19, in terms of states and districts affected is at an all-time high,” the report said. On the positive side, the mortality rate from Covid-19 continues to decline.
The report said the high-frequency indicators continue to give mixed signals about the recovery of the economy.
Road traffic congestion levels were flat to down compared to the previous week. Bengaluru, where traffic congestion had rebounded the most, saw a decline in traffic congestion compared to the previous week. This is most likely on account of a large number of new cases in Bengaluru as well as the rest of Karnataka.
The electricity consumption gap, compared to 2019, narrowed further to 2 percent. States like UP, MP, and Telangana consumed more electricity than in a similar period in CY2019. Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, and Gujarat had large electricity consumption gaps.
The daily payment data showed that daily average UPI and IMPS transaction value in July is at an all-time high. NETC FASTag transaction value in July is comparable to June, it said.
The Railway freight volume declined in July after increasing in May and June. The year-on-year decline in port volume was lower in June when compared to April and May. The daily average e-waybills generated in the first six days of July were lower than June daily average.
The daily average of property registrations in Maharashtra in July is higher than the daily average of March 2020 and is 87 percent of FY2019 daily average.
Most industries saw an increase in the number of new job postings in June when compared to May. Education, chemicals, and FMCG saw the most increase in the number of new job postings, as per the report.
